DTN Midday Livestock Comments          10/11 11:53

   Cattle Drift Lower While Hogs Tiptoe Past Resistance 

   No new cash cattle sales have been reported Friday, which likely means the 
bulk of this week's trade is done. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as the cattle 
contracts drift lower while the hog complex continues to rally thanks to 
Thursday's strong export report. No new cash cattle sales have been reported 
and it looks like the bulk of this week's trade is done. December corn is down 
1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.00. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is up 279.92 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   Traders don't seem that interested in supporting the live cattle complex as 
Friday's noon hour nears. After advancing the complex earlier in the week and 
seeing that the bulk of the week's cash cattle business is done, traders simply 
seemed to check out of the market and uninterested in doing much with the 
market ahead of the weekend given that they were actively involved in the 
market earlier this week. October live cattle are down $0.27 at $188.90, 
December live cattle are down $0.42 at $187.85, and February live cattle are 
down $0.55 at $188.32. No new cash cattle sales have been reported and no bids 
have been renewed. Some clean-up trade could happen ahead of the day's close, 
but largely it's looking like packers are done buying for the week.

   Friday's WASDE report was supportive to both the beef and cattle markets of 
2024. 2024 beef production was raised by 205 million pounds to total 27,000,000 
pounds for the year as beef production for the third and fourth quarters are 
expected to be greater than last month's projection and carcass weights remain 
at record levels. Beef production for 2025 was also increased -- by 300 million 
pounds -- as production in the first half of the year is expected to be greater 
than originally assumed. It was exciting to see quarterly steer price 
projections increased from last month's report as steer prices in the fourth 
quarter of 2024 are expected to average $186 (up $3.00 from last month), first 
quarter steer prices in 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $1.00 from last 
month) and second quarter steer prices in 2024 are expected to average $186 
(which is steady with last month's projection). 2024 beef imports were 
increased by 55 million pounds as supplies continue to come into the US 
aggressively from Oceania and South America, but beef exports for 2024 were 
also increased by 5 million pounds.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.10 ($311.05) and select up $0.98 
($291.71) with a movement of 51 loads (18.90 loads of choice, 7.80 loads of 
select, 13.41 loads of trim and 10.86 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The nearby feeder cattle contracts are following in line with the live 
cattle contracts, but the deferred months have kept their upward trajectory 
regardless of what the live cattle complex is doing. October feeders are down 
$0.40 at $249.87, November feeders are down $0.07 at $249.87, and January 
feeders are down $0.07 at $247.12. Currently, even with the spot November 
contract trading slightly lower, the market remains above its 100-day moving 
average which will be a critical threshold to monitor when checking prices at 
the day's close. If traders keep the market above that threshold, it signals 
technical strength and support; but if traders allow the market to retreat 
below that threshold, questions could arise as to how much more upside 
potential the market has in the near future.

LEAN HOGS:

   Seeming to still be rallying on the strong export sales report from 
Thursday, the lean hog complex is inching above resistance as Friday's noon 
hour approaches. Thankfully, in terms of quarterly price projections, hog 
prices are expected to be higher than originally thought on last month's WASDE 
report which lends some supplemental support to the market. December lean hogs 
are up $0.67 at $77.62, February lean hogs are up $0.62 at $81.02, and April 
lean hogs are up $0.30 at $84.92. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 
10/10/2024 is down $0.18 at $84.29, and the actual index for 10/9/2024 is 
steady at $84.47. Hog prices are not available on the Daily Direct Morning Hog 
Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see only 349 head have traded 
Friday and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $75.52. Pork 
cutouts total 168.20 loads with 146.09 loads of pork cuts and 22.11 loads of 
trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.50, $95.37.

   Friday's WASDE report was mixed to both the hog and pork markets of 2024. 
2024 pork production was decreased by 105 million pounds as recently slaughter 
speeds have been reduced and carcass weights are lighter. Quarterly price 
projections were favorable to the hog complex as hogs in the fourth quarter of 
2024 are now expected to average $55 (up $1.00 from last month), hog prices in 
the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $55 (up $1.00 from last 
month) and hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $61 
(up $1.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2024 are unchanged, but pork 
exports for 2024 fell by 30 million pounds. 

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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